8 September, 2021
Marketing Logic analytical company, based on sales data of medicines for cardiovascular diseases provided by DSM Group research company, has analyzed the dependence of the pharmacy sales level of medicines in the Russia regions on various social, demographic and economic parameters from the open information of Rosstat and the Ministry of Health.
Marketing Logic analysts compared drug sales (number of packages) with more than 50 parameters of the country's constituent entities open statistical data: from the various diseases prevalence, the burden level of clinics and hospitals to sports infrastructure and the income level. The calculations were carried out using an estimate based on the method of least squares and ridge regression, which showed a high coefficient of determination.
Demographic data were investigated: the proportion of urban and rural residents, age and sex composition, the proportion of working age population, as well as younger and older working age. In addition, analysts assessed the influence of such factors as water quality, various product consumptions volume, alcohol, as well as economic factors: the housing cost, the debt to banks level, as well as residents' expenses level, the percentage of unemployment, the level of wages and GRP of the constituent entities of the country. Among the medical indicators, open data on mortality from infectious, oncological diseases, the respiratory tract diseases, gastrointestinal tract, as well as the provision of polyclinics and the burden on doctors were investigated. The mortality rate from external causes was considered as an indirect sign of social well-being.
Among the factors that have a significant impact on the sale of drugs for cardiovascular diseases, analysts identified statistically significant with a confidence interval of 95%. In the first place with the highest coefficient of influence (-9.6) was the GRP level: the higher the GRP indicator, the less residents buy "heart" drugs. In second place among economic factors (7.4) is the average level of per capita income. At the same time, it showed a noticeably less influence in comparison with the GDP indicator of the country's constituent entities. The share of working-age residents showed the opposite effect: the larger the share, the less sales of drugs for cardiovascular diseases (-6.3).
At the same time, several characteristics related to sports at once didn't have a direct effect on the consumption of drugs for cardiovascular diseases. As previously investigated, sports infrastructure in general reduces drug sales, but the cardiovascular profile has not shown an increase in this indicator.
The study on alcohol consumption did not reveal a significant effect of the level of alcohol consumption on the level of drug consumption. At the same time, the analysis revealed an inverse relationship with the level of consumption of wine and champagne (-3). A slight increase in this figure lowers the level of drugs sales. It is important to note that the impact of this indicator on the other drug types consumption was not investigated within the framework of the project.
“We can explain the dependence of drug sales on the GRP level by the fact that more prosperous subjects have the opportunity to create a more favorable environment for life and health, with less stress, with bette medical carer provision, which in turn reduces the prevalence of cardiovascular diseases and drug consumption. ... We expected that lifestyle, alcohol consumption and unbalanced diets would have a greater impact, but the study did not support this hypothesis. However, it can be assumed that these factors significantly affect life expectancy, and low life expectancy, in turn, reduces the age of increased consumption of drugs for cardiovascular diseases, therefore the study did not reveal a significant effect of these factors on their sales ”, - says Dmitry Galkin, Managing Partner of Marketing Logic.
“Consumption of cardiovascular drugs is one of the indicators of public health, since this disease is one of the main causes of death (according to WHO). At the macroeconomic level, cardiovascular disease (CVD) imposes a heavy burden on a country's economy. Therefore, it was interesting to combine our data on population spending on drugs for the treatment of CVD in the regional context with various socio-economic indicators. A higher GRP of the subject leads to the additional financing possibility of drug consumption at the expense of regional funds, which means that the consumer will spend less of his own money on the purchase of drugs ", - Sergey Shulyak, CEO of DSM Group, comments on the research results.