Marketing Logic presents market analysis at Modern Bakery Moscow

16 June, 2022

Marketing Logic participated as an analytics partner at Modern Bakery Moscow, the international trade fair for the bakery and confectionery market.

The leading international exhibition for the bakery and confectionery markets takes place for the 27th time, covering the entire production and sales cycle of bakery and confectionery products and presenting technological and sourcing solutions from Austria, Germany, Turkey, Italy, China, Lithuania, Portugal, Russia, Saudi Arabia, France, Czech Republic, Switzerland and other countries.

Dmitry Galkin, Managing Partner at Marketing Logic analytics company and expert in geo-analytics and big data analysis, presented to the guests and participants of the exhibition business programme the results of research of the Russian market of bakeries and pastry shops in the country's largest cities as well as geo-analytics tools helping to assess the potential of market growth, network and non-network business, lifespan of bakeries in various country regions, factors most influencing business success.

"We expanded our analytical study of how businesses are developing in Russia's largest cities, exclusively for the Modern Bakery Moscow exhibition, so that the forum guests would have the opportunity to receive more detailed information. For instance, looking at the Top 15 Russian megacities, we saw that the leaders in bakery business development were Omsk, Novosibirsk and Volgograd. Expanding the city list to 30 cities, we obtained data on new successful cities, such as Krasnodar (1st place and 50.3 bakeries and pastry shops per 100,000 residents) and Saratov (3rd place and 40.8 bakeries and pastry shops per 100,000 people)."», - Dmitry Galkin, Managing Partner, Marketing Logic.

It should be noted that the Top 30 largest Russian cities have an average of 29 bakeries per 100,000 residents, while in Europe, according to various data, there is an average of 35 bakeries, i.e. these parameters are comparable.

The average lifespan of a bakery in Russia is 1.5 years. It is higher in Moscow (1.8 years), Saint Petersburg (1.66 years), Ufa (1.59 years), and lower, for example, in Izhevsk, Yaroslavl, Makhachkala, where it averages 1 year.

The largest Russian metropolitan cities, Moscow and Saint Petersburg have the highest share of bakery businesses with a lifespan of 5+ years. The capitals are followed by Chelyabinsk, Novosibirsk, and Krasnoyarsk.

The smallest share of businesses with over five years of experience is in Makhachkala, Tyumen, Yaroslavl, Izhevsk and Togliatti. Chain businesses live longer than non-chain ones. If you consider a company of five or more sites a chain, then chains live 105% longer than smaller players.

The geo-analytical approach also revealed the most important criteria for opening a successful bakery or pastry shop (in descending order of importance):

• property value in the immediate surroundings of the location;
• population density within a 1000 x 1000 m square (walking distance);
• the retail density;
• transport stops;
• availability of hotels;
• business centres within walking distance;
• front line location.